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Mind and markets

Lesson 93 · Written for kid, teen, and little

Survivorship Bias: The Missing Stories

Winners get the headlines, so success can look way more common than it really was.

The idea

When people tell money stories, they mostly tell you about the ones that went great — the app that took off, the stock that soared. The ones that flopped disappear quietly, and nobody writes an article about them. That gap is called survivorship bias: you only see the survivors, so winning looks far more common than it actually was. The fix is one question — 'How many people tried this, and what happened to the rest?' 🏆

A

Words to know

5

survivorship bias

Looking only at the people or businesses that remain visible, while leaving out those that failed or disappeared from the sample.

survivor

Something that made it through, like a company that is still open today.

sample

The group you are looking at when you try to learn something. Asking only lottery winners whether lottery tickets are a good idea is a broken sample.

base rate

How often something happens across everybody who tried, not just the winners. Millions buy tickets; a handful win.

track record

The story of how something has done over time. Ten years of results tells you far more than one good month.

Try it — no accountTrue or false

True or not true? Swipe each card.

Card 1 of 4

If you only read about people who got rich, you might think getting rich is easy.

Swipe the card — or tap.

In the full lesson

  1. 1True or false
  2. 2Put it in order
  3. 3Make the call

Vine has 107 lessons like this one, each written three ways so a 7-year-old and a 17-year-old both get a version that fits.

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